A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
